When Canada hosts the G8 in 2010, less than an hour from my home in Huntsville, Ontario we’ll want to have the moral authority to call on our guests to make real progress on issues of economic reform, poverty and climate change. Between now and then, Canadians need to send clear unequivocal messages to our leaders encouraging them to live up to our existing agreements and negotiate significant action on poverty an climate change.

Canada has the right to encourage strong controls on the Global Financial System:

Canada can hold its head high when it comes to demanding transparent International standards for regulating banks. Back under Paul Martin’s stint as Economic Minister it was Canada who proposed a look under the hood of the G8 (actually it was the G7 back then) financial regulations in response to the Asian Economic Crisis of the late 1980’s. Canada was the first to undergo such a review and our banking system stands as perhaps the best prepared to weather the current economic crisis.

On Poverty

If Canada wants the moral authority to call on other countries to meet their international agreements regarding poverty and climate change, Canadian leaders need to first have a look at their own record.

From Rabble.ca:

Prime Minister Harper at the press conference he gave on the final day of the G8 boasted about Canada keeping its commitments on doubling aid to Africa and argued against the G8 making new promises until it has delivered on past ones.

Canada, while on track to fulfill the doubling aid to Africa pledge made in 2005, is still in a weak moral position to provide global leadership unless it commits to a timetable to reach the UN aid target of 0.7%. Many other countries have either already achieved or have timetables to achieve the 0.7% target by 2015. And Canada stands at only 16th out of 22 donor countries in terms of the aid we give as a percentage of our national income.

Remember Kyoto?

Canada has also failed in a big way to live up to its international commitments on Climate Change. Remember Kyoto Prime Minister? That’s where we committed to a 5% reduction on 1990 carbon emissions by 2012. Last I checked, Canada was 22% ABOVE 1990 emissions. We’ve missed the mark by quite a bit. Will we live up to any agreements made under the new UN Framework being negotiated for Copenhagen this December? Canadians hope so

As Dennis Howlett states, at the conclusion of his Rabble.ca article, “For this to happen, we will need to engage Canadians in an unprecedented way, and mount a huge campaign for Canada to be a leader again on the world stage in tacking global poverty and the threat of climate change. I hope I can count on your support.”

I couldn’t’ agree more.

Check out:

• Rabble: Looking for Canadian Leadership

Today the members of the G8, meeting in Italy released a declaration that that highlights the importance of Climate Change without committing member countries from taking any serious action.

Leaders of the G8 recognise the broad scientific view that the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed 2°C.

While G8 Nations express agreement that it is desirable that global temperature not rise above 2 degrees C, member countries fail to agree to firm commitments which will ensure this important temperature threshold is not breached.

On Climate Change

From the G8 Declaration:

The interlinked challenges of climate change, energy security and the sustainable and efficient use of natural resources are amongst the most important issues to be tackled in the strategic perspective of ensuring global sustainability.

We must seize the opportunity to build on synergies between actions to combat climate change and economic recovery initiatives, and encourage growth and sustainable development worldwide.

Consistent with this ambitious long-term objective, we will undertake robust aggregate and individual mid-term reductions . . .

We reiterate our willingness to share with all countries the goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050, recognizing that this implies that global emissions need to peak as soon as possible and decline thereafter. As part of this, we also support a goal of developed countries reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in aggregate by 80% or more by 2050 compared to 1990 or more recent years.

With a view to building on these experiences and to facilitate action under the global post 2012 agreement, we commit to further explore, taking into account national circumstances, the potential of carbon trading systems and their possible linkages;

Behind the Words:

The declaration is clear that human-caused climate change requires “Immediate and resolute action” but much less clear when it comes to putting solutions in place.

It is widely regarded that global Carbon emissions must start declining by 2015 in order to stave off the most drastic climate change scenarios possible. This in itself is a problem. To permit emissions to continue to climb (in Canada they climb almost 2% annually!) and to say they need to peak as soon as possible is disingenuous. Emissions need to start decreasing NOW. How soon is possible? 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? Kyoto is a decade old and although Canada declared to have emissions below 1990 levels by 2012 they are still on the rise and at present are 22% above 1990 levels.

Coupled with the pledge to have emissions by 2050 be 80% below 1990 or current levels is a direct challenge to the goals outlined by Kyoto which stated 1990 as the default baseline for emissions tracking. By allowing for a flexible date up to current emission levels, the G8 declaration openly disregards the Kyoto Protocol which called on developing nations to reductions in Greenhouse gas emissions of 5.2% vs. 1990 levels by the interim date of 2012. This is just the robust intermediate target, as the G8 declaration calls for, however Canada has declared not to meet its international obligations according to the Kyoto Treaty and is 27% above its agreed-upon greenhouse gas emissions target.

The declaration strongly supports Cap and Trade schemes which have been shown to be successful in reducing emissions, however the G8 loophole phrase - taking into account national circumstances, leaves application of this otherwise strong support for emissions trading on very weak grounds. It begs the question, “What are Canada’s circumstances regarding developing or participating in an emissions trading scheme?

On a Green Recovery

From the G8 Declaration:

The emergency response to the economic crisis should not overlook the opportunity to facilitate a global green recovery putting our economies on a path towards more sustainable and resilient growth. Our fiscal stimulus packages are increasingly investing in measures encouraging the creation of green jobs and low-carbon, energy efficient and sustainable growth. These include energy efficiency measures, investment in public transportation infrastructure, incentives for fuel-efficient vehicles, research in alternative sources of energy, support for renewable energy technologies, as well as in enhanced CO2 reduction, recycling and disposal such as Carbon Capture and Storage. We remain committed to enhance the environmental dimension of budgetary measures and to reinforce efforts to promote clean energy and energy efficiency.

Behind the Words:

The Declaration would be much more meaningful with specific targets for Green Fiscal stimulus. The US Climate Legislation which has recently passed the House of Representatives has billions in stimulus for a Greening of the Economy. Other countries have instituted specific recommendations for allocation of funds for green carbon friendly recovery. South Korea is allocating 80% of its recovery dollars for green projects. Instead Canada dumped the majority of fiscal stimulus into a failing automotive industry. The G8 declaration inspires little in the way of Green Fiscal Stimulus commitments for laggard member nations like Canada, ascribing no specific targeted stimulus investments to green economic recovery.

In Conclusion:

While the declaration fails to commit G8 members from taking action on Climate Change, it does succeed in highlighting agreement among members that Climate Change is the critical issue of the year. Hopefully, tomorrows Major Economies Forum (MEF) called by U.S. President Barack Obama to discuss progress towards a new global climate agreement will produce a more positive communiqué that identifies clear targets and commits contributing countries to firm targets and action on climate change.

Read the Entire Declaration

http://www.g8italia2009.it/static/G8_Allegato/G8_Declaration_08_07_09_final,0.pdf

Science is now as certain as it can be of harmful climate change. The only real uncertainty is about how much climate change and human suffering we are willing to allow and bear. According to todays report “Suffering the Science” by Oxfam, the latest science shows the impacts of climate change have a bearing on millions who live in the developing world.

The rise in global average temperatures is playing out differently over the poles, the tropics, the seas, and the big land masses.

Oxfam’s report says that it is a bitter irony that countries and economies located in temperate zones around the world will experience milder impacts from climate change – at least initially. However in the tropics, where the bulk of humanity lives, many of them in poverty, climate change is beginning already taking a terrifying toll on millions who live there.

A survey of top climate scientists, also published by Oxfam today, said poor people living in low-lying coastal areas, island atolls and mega deltas and farmers are most at risk from climate change because of flooding and prolonged drought. South Asia and Africa are climate change hotspots according to the scientists, all contributors to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Food Production is seriously threatened by Climate Change

South Asia (the world’s most populous region), Southern Africa, and the sub-Saharan region will see severe threats to food supply.

Rice plants react very quickly to temperature change: they show a 10 per cent drop in yield for every 1ºC rise in minimum temperature. Australia, a global leader in rice exports has seen a 90% drop in rice production in the areas most significantly impacted by current climate changes.

An Asian Development Bank report warns that rice production in the Philippines could drop by 50–70 per cent as early as 2020

A Stern Warning

Lord Stern, former chief economist to the World Bank, says there is ‘a big probability of a devastating outcome’ and that ‘the likelihood of global warming in the 21st century even beyond the threshold of a 2.4°C increase is dangerously high’. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, the advisor to the German chancellor on climate change, says that on the basis of the new evidence, he thinks anything up to 5°C of warming is ‘likely’ by 2100 under a ‘business as usual’ scenario. Under such a scenario, Schellnhuber expects the human population of the world to fall to just one billion.

How Much are you willing to pay for Insurance (if not climate change mitigation)

Climate-related disasters have been increasing in frequency at an extraordinary rate. Extend the line of the graph that charts such events between 1975 and 2008, and it says that in 2030 we will experience more than three times as many such disasters as today.

A record $165 billion was lost in the 2005 hurricane season alone and the insurance industry says that climate change will make the situation worse, particularly for poor people who have no access to insurance.

Recent report from the Insurance Companies clearly points to significantly higher insurance rates with up to 50% increase in costs due to climate change in the next ten years!

Will the Polluter Pays principle apply?

In Bolivia, residents of many communities depend on the Mururata glacier. It is where they get our water from for everything: cooking, washing, drinking, watering our gardens, feeding our animals. Without Mururata the nine communities that depend on it as a source of water won’t be able to survive here.

Since 1975 the glacier, which sits at 5,880 metres, has lost 22% of its surface and scientists estimate that in the next 40-50 years it will have disappeared forever.

Governments are concerned that climate change will spark increasing conflict between countries as scarcity of vital water supplies brings bitter disputes over their control. But developed nations should be concerned for another kind of dispute.

One community that depends on the Mururata glacier is not only mobilizing to take action by diversifying crops they plant to adapt to Climate Change, but also by taking eye-opening international action that should have the attention of all developed nations. With the assistance of the organisation Agua Sustentable (Sustainable Water) they are mounting a human rights case against the United States of America for the damages climate change has caused and will continue to cause to their community. They will be calling for the US to take urgent action to reduce their emissions as well as demanding financial compensation

A Target worth hitting

Rich countries must commit to reduce their own emissions by at least 40 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020 and all countries must act to reduce global emissions by at least 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050.

Climate Breakdown

Experts in the science of climate change are calling on governments to accept and meet these climate mitigating targets so that global temperature increases are kept in the range of 2-2.5 degrees C for this century. The IPCC has said that ‘global mean temperature changes greater than 4ºC above 1990–2000 levels’ would ‘exceed … the adaptive capacity of many systems’. The Tyndall Centre’s more likely scenarios, based on current government strategies, point to 4–5ºC of warming this century. Therefore there is a genuine fear that the world may cross tipping points which make accelerated warming inevitable – such as the death of the rainforests and melting of the permafrost (both of which would then become sources of carbon emissions), the loss of almost all glaciers, and the melting of the polar ice caps.

Trees as Contributers to Climate Change?

If the earth heats up by more than 2.5ºC, recent research says that tropical forests may become a net source of carbon emissions as their vegetation starts to degrade. Forests currently absorb 25 per cent of the carbon produced every year.

Oxfams “Suffering the Science” report touches on other issues including disruptions to weather patterns and planting cycles, weather disasters, rising sea level, human health impacts of climate change and more.

The Bottom Line

We elect governments to act in our best interests. As with the economic crisis that galvanized the nations of the world to agree to significant changes to how we monitor banks, and set in place a global economic stimulus package it is time for world leaders to act in the best interests of not only those who elected them, but humanity as a whole. As the report concludes: “The true cost of climate change will not be measured in dollars, but in millions or billions of lives.”